Rocky Road to Caribbean Unification

▪ 1997

      by David Renwick

 The 14 member nations of the Caribbean Community and Common Market (Caricom) struggled in 1996 to advance their unification movement but with much less success than had been envisioned. Leaders in the Caribbean region generally agree that a single market and economy (SME) in Caricom is essential for the group's eventual integration into the huge Western Hemisphere trading bloc to be known as the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), which U.S. Pres. Bill Clinton proposed to the hemispheric summit conference in Miami, Fla., in December 1994.

      Even an interim arrangement with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), for which Caricom's leading members, Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica, were pressing, would require a single or, at least, a coordinated Caricom voice. So would the group's ability to make the most of its membership in the 25-nation Association of Caribbean States, which linked Caricom with Central America, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and the non-English-speaking Caribbean territories, including Cuba, in August 1995.

      The FTAA, which would create the world's largest free-trade area, 750 million people, was scheduled to come into being by 2005. Unlike other similar trading agreements, it did not, at least as of 1996, include any preferential phasing-in period for the smaller economies of the hemisphere. As Luis Rodríguez, deputy permanent secretary of the Caracas, Venez.-based Latin American Economic System (SELA), to which some Caricom nations belong, pointed out, "Nothing so far in the set of principles enunciated by the ministers in the Americas suggests special or preferential treatment for the smaller and less developed countries of the hemisphere when FTAA is established."

      Caricom, with 5.5 million people, is one of the hemisphere's smaller economies. The largest member is Jamaica, with 2.4 million people, and the smallest is Montserrat, with 10,000. Though small by world standards, Caricom is believed to have a good chance of competing with such powers as the U.S. and Brazil if it can function as an SME, along the lines of the European Union.

      Caricom leaders have already decided that their countries should relate to the FTAA as a single bloc, but achieving this goal is difficult, as the lack of progress in 1996 demonstrated. While such leaders as Trinidad and Tobago's prime minister, Basdeo Panday, talk positively—"The SME will be an instrument for fostering economic development among Caricom states facing an increasingly open and competitive global environment"—actual achievements have been few. Such organizations as the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, while conceding that the FTAA "holds the potential for increased economic growth, employment and social equity in Caricom," have reservations about the latter's ability to put its house in order first.

      A few tentative steps were taken in 1996. The 14 Caricom countries (which include one non-English-speaking state, Suriname) managed to strip away tariffs among themselves, as well as quota restrictions on internal trade, and agreed on a uniform customs barrier to the outside world (a maximum of 20% on all nonagricultural goods, to be in place by 1998). Caricom also harmonized its incentives for industrial development throughout the region.

      A much lengthier list, however, comprises what has not been done. The Caricom heads of government meeting in Barbados in July was marked more by wrangling over barriers to internal trade temporarily erected by one or two members than by the setting of a firm timetable for reaching milestones along the road to the SME. The basic elements on which agreement is required for the SME to begin to take shape include:

      Harmonization of macroeconomic policy, including monetary, exchange-rate, and interest-rate policy. The closest the countries have come to this is an agreement between some central banks to accept repatriated currency. Exchange-rate policy is complicated by the fact that the value of three Caricom currencies—the Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, and Guyana dollars—are market-determined, whereas the rest are set administratively. There are no fewer than eight different Caricom currencies. In any event, the basic criteria for monetary union—a stable exchange rate for a period of 36 months, a sustainable debt service ratio not exceeding 15%, and foreign exchange reserves equivalent to three months of imports maintained for at least 12 months—were in 1996 not met by most Caricom economies.

      Harmonization of fiscal policy, including broadly similar tax regimes and the avoidance of double taxation.

      Abandonment of nontariff barriers. Import licensing controlling the flow of some goods within Caricom still exists to a limited extent, as do regulations restricting the exchange of some agricultural products.

      Free movement of labour. This is traditionally one of the most difficult areas of agreement in single-market systems. Some Caricom nations removed barriers to the free movement of an elite group of professionals—physicians, dentists, lawyers, engineers, and accountants. Workers seeking better opportunities by relocating from one Caricom country to another have, however, not been granted free movement.

      Free movement of capital and the ability of investors from anywhere in Caricom to establish businesses on the same terms as local residents. Exchange control still exists in most Caricom countries, and investor rights are constrained by regulations that tend to favour nationals and by restrictions on foreign ownership of assets.

      Transferability of social benefits throughout the region. Only a handful of countries have passed legislation making provision for this.

      A regional transportation policy. This is regarded as critical to the SME's success but has been stymied by airline competition between Caricom nations and by the absence of reliable intraregional shipping services.

      The challenges are therefore formidable, and few see them being overcome, even by 2005. As the UN Economic Commission pointed out, "The pace of convergence to a single Caricom market is such that it is unlikely to come into effect in time to allow for a smooth transition to the wider FTAA market."

      David Renwick is a journalist in Trinidad and Tobago.

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